RI Current Transaction Still Deficit in Jokowi-JK's 4-Year Leadership
RakyatUtama. Indonesia is a country that still has a deficit in the current account balance. This condition has occurred in recent years, because imports are greater than exports.
The current account deficit will make a country's foreign exchange reserves depleted. Because foreign exchange reserves must be withdrawn to finance the swift flow of imported goods from abroad.
In fact, foreign investors if they want to invest in a country, will see the number of current account deficits (CAD) as one of the values that must be fulfilled.
From the data of Bank Indonesia (BI) in the second quarter of 2018, the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 8 billion or 3% of gross domestic product (GDP). Quarterly CAD figures are indeed higher when compared to the first quarter of 2018 which amounted to US $ 5.5 billion or 2.6% of GDP.
"In the second quarter it increased in line with economic activity, which was reflected in gross domestic product (GDP) which was driven by consumption and investment or manufacturing activities," said Executive Director of the BI Statistics Department Yati Kurniati
The widening current account deficit is also influenced by the cycle of payment of dividends and foreign debt (ULN). Because some corporations have a large amount of maturity which is simultaneously and generally carried out in the second quarter.
From the Indonesia Balance of Payments (NPI) data issued by Bank Indonesia (BI) in the 2014 fourth quarter of the current account, the Republic of Indonesia recorded a deficit of US $ 6.2 billion or around 2.81% of gross domestic product.
The current account performance in the first quarter of 2014 was worse than the same period in 2013 which amounted to US $ 4.3 billion or 2.05% of GDP. This deterioration was due to the decline in the non-oil and gas trade surplus in line with the decline in exports due to the still weak demand and weakening commodity prices.
Overall, the current account performance in 2014 improved by recording a deficit of US $ 26.2 billion or 2.95% of GDP. Lower than the previous year which reached US $ 29.1 billion or 3.18%.
This development was supported by the decline in imports due to weakening domestic demand as a result of moderating domestic growth and the deterioration of export deterioration by the exchange rate policy in accordance with its fundamentals. In addition, the shrinking of the service account deficit and the increase in the secondary income balance surplus helped improve the performance of the current account.
The improvement in the current account performance was supported by an increase in the non-oil and gas trade balance surplus and a shrinking oil and gas trade deficit. In addition, the reduced pressure from the current account deficit was also affected by the increase in the secondary income account surplus which followed a seasonal pattern.
Then in 2015 in total the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 17.76 billion. Then entering 2016 the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 16.3 billion or 1.8% of GDP. In 2017 the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 17.3 billion or 1.7% of GDP.
INDEF Economist Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara explained that Indonesia's current account deficit in the second quarter of 2018 was in an unfavorable condition. This has made Indonesia increasingly dependent on foreign portfolio financing to meet foreign exchange needs.
"On the other hand, from the beginning of 2018, foreign funds coming out of the stock market reached Rp. 56 trillion. This perfect storm or severe pressure condition is not impossible to further erode foreign exchange reserves in the future," added Bhima.
According to Bhima, the solution to face the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate was to reduce the current account deficit by controlling the most imported goods such as steel, machinery, electrical and plastic equipment. Then the government can start by expanding the import duty by 10-25%.
Furthermore, the increase in domestic oil and gas production will reduce the oil and gas deficit. Then from the monetary side, BI can raise the benchmark interest rate higher to anticipate the Fed Rate.
Bhima added, the preferential exchange rate guaranteed by BI to repatriate export proceeds could be used. Then the government can reduce the export of crude palm oil (CPO) levies from US $ 50 per ton to US $ 20 per ton.
"The hope is that palm oil competitiveness in the international market can rise," he explained.
The current account deficit will make a country's foreign exchange reserves depleted. Because foreign exchange reserves must be withdrawn to finance the swift flow of imported goods from abroad.
In fact, foreign investors if they want to invest in a country, will see the number of current account deficits (CAD) as one of the values that must be fulfilled.
From the data of Bank Indonesia (BI) in the second quarter of 2018, the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 8 billion or 3% of gross domestic product (GDP). Quarterly CAD figures are indeed higher when compared to the first quarter of 2018 which amounted to US $ 5.5 billion or 2.6% of GDP.
"In the second quarter it increased in line with economic activity, which was reflected in gross domestic product (GDP) which was driven by consumption and investment or manufacturing activities," said Executive Director of the BI Statistics Department Yati Kurniati
The widening current account deficit is also influenced by the cycle of payment of dividends and foreign debt (ULN). Because some corporations have a large amount of maturity which is simultaneously and generally carried out in the second quarter.
From the Indonesia Balance of Payments (NPI) data issued by Bank Indonesia (BI) in the 2014 fourth quarter of the current account, the Republic of Indonesia recorded a deficit of US $ 6.2 billion or around 2.81% of gross domestic product.
The current account performance in the first quarter of 2014 was worse than the same period in 2013 which amounted to US $ 4.3 billion or 2.05% of GDP. This deterioration was due to the decline in the non-oil and gas trade surplus in line with the decline in exports due to the still weak demand and weakening commodity prices.
Overall, the current account performance in 2014 improved by recording a deficit of US $ 26.2 billion or 2.95% of GDP. Lower than the previous year which reached US $ 29.1 billion or 3.18%.
This development was supported by the decline in imports due to weakening domestic demand as a result of moderating domestic growth and the deterioration of export deterioration by the exchange rate policy in accordance with its fundamentals. In addition, the shrinking of the service account deficit and the increase in the secondary income balance surplus helped improve the performance of the current account.
The improvement in the current account performance was supported by an increase in the non-oil and gas trade balance surplus and a shrinking oil and gas trade deficit. In addition, the reduced pressure from the current account deficit was also affected by the increase in the secondary income account surplus which followed a seasonal pattern.
Then in 2015 in total the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 17.76 billion. Then entering 2016 the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 16.3 billion or 1.8% of GDP. In 2017 the current account deficit was recorded at US $ 17.3 billion or 1.7% of GDP.
INDEF Economist Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara explained that Indonesia's current account deficit in the second quarter of 2018 was in an unfavorable condition. This has made Indonesia increasingly dependent on foreign portfolio financing to meet foreign exchange needs.
"On the other hand, from the beginning of 2018, foreign funds coming out of the stock market reached Rp. 56 trillion. This perfect storm or severe pressure condition is not impossible to further erode foreign exchange reserves in the future," added Bhima.
According to Bhima, the solution to face the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate was to reduce the current account deficit by controlling the most imported goods such as steel, machinery, electrical and plastic equipment. Then the government can start by expanding the import duty by 10-25%.
Furthermore, the increase in domestic oil and gas production will reduce the oil and gas deficit. Then from the monetary side, BI can raise the benchmark interest rate higher to anticipate the Fed Rate.
Bhima added, the preferential exchange rate guaranteed by BI to repatriate export proceeds could be used. Then the government can reduce the export of crude palm oil (CPO) levies from US $ 50 per ton to US $ 20 per ton.
"The hope is that palm oil competitiveness in the international market can rise," he explained.
Komentar
Posting Komentar